[statnet_help] MCMC% values

Pavel Krivitsky p.krivitsky at unsw.edu.au
Fri Mar 13 20:48:31 PDT 2020

Dear Malena,

MCMC % is the percent of the standard error in the table that is due to using MCMC to estimate the likelihood (loosely speaking). If the model converages but the MCMC % is that high, it means that the model is not too problematic, but the MCMC.interval= control.ergm() parameter is too small to get an accurate idea of what the MLE is.

You can play around with it, or you can try the MCMC.effectiveSize= mechanism, which will try to find it automatically---though it's relatively untested.

I hope this helps,

On Thu, 2020-03-12 at 10:21 +0000, Haenni, Malena wrote:
Dear statnet community

I am working with valued ERGMs with count data. I am wondering what the MCMC % values mean. I never see them reported in papers, but I was told in a summer school course as a rule of thumb that the value should not be higher than 10.

Any insights on that? And what does it mean for the goodness of my models if I have a few predictors for which the values are 50 or even up to 78? This is the case for sum and one other predictor, the others are 0 ore close to 0.

What does this tell me about the goodness or the legitimacy of the models?

I would be grateful for your insights.


Malena Haenni
Phd candidate

Institut für Systemisches Management und Public Governance | (IMP-HSG)
Universität St.Gallen (HSG) | Dufourstr. 40a | CH-9000 St.Gallen

Tel. +41 79 796 50 40
malena.haenni at unisg.ch<mailto:malena.haenni at unisg.ch> | www.imp.unisg.ch<http://www.imp.unisg.ch/>


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